2012 Cox Plate - Mooney Valley 27-10-2012
1. SHOOT OUT
Shoot Out performs well in Weight For Age events and his last two WFA performances have been ones to take notice of. Two starts back won the George Main and finished a close third to Manighar in the Ranvet over 2000 metres earlier in the year. Will be hard to dismiss his claims despite finishing 7th at his last start in the Epsom Handicap when covered extra ground from a wide gate. Barrier four will suit as he usually likes to run on the speed.
Why Shoot Out Can't win :
Contingent of light weight chances in the race this year will mean he will be giving away at least 10kg, he may be found wanting over the concluding stages.
Has been a consistent performer, his last start 3rd to Ocean Park in the Caulfield Stakes has him primed for this race. Likes the sting out of the ground and if the skies do open up his chances will increase.
Why Sincero can't win :
A wide draw will not help as will the fact that his last attempt at this distance was in the Mackinnon Stakes this time last year, finishing midfield behind Glass Harmonium.
3. GLASS HARMONIUM
Has drawn perfectly in gate 2 and will need to be on his best behaviour in the barriers as has a tendency to miss the start. Ran them off their legs in the Mckinnon last year in Weight for Age conditions. Always seems to like the big stage when his chances have been written off.
Why Glass Harmonium can't win
Missed the start last outing when finishing 10th being well beaten and bad habits are hard to break. In this race last year finished 10th behind Pinker Pinker. May just find this race a little too rich.
4. GREEN MOON
Great run last time when defeating Seville in the Turnbull Stakes when caught wide, working hard and still holding of all challenges. Has come right into calculations and will have solid support.
Why Green Moon can't win
Has yet to prove he is a true weight for age horse and will rely on some luck in running as will mostly likely be held up in between runners on the crowded home turn of Mooney Valley.
5. REKINDLED INTEREST
Has always been rated highly by connections and is a solid performer. His last win, is on the Mooney Valley track when he worked through the field from last to defeat Alcopop, whose form reads well when 2nd to Dunaden last week. Weight for age suits and likes the track, fast finishing third to Pinker Pinker in last year's Cox Plate version.
Why Rekindled Interest Can't win
Has a poor win ratio and his last win was back in September of last year. May be seeking more ground now.
Capable on his day. Started the spring campaign with a win in the Group 3, R A Lee Stakes in Morphetville and a close 4th in the Group 2 Dato'tan Stakes behind Happy Trails. Is a winner on this track and his close 2nd to Shocking in last years Australian Cup highlights his potential.
Why Linton can't win :
Does seem outclassed, has never won at the distance and is facing far superior horses who have the knack of performing in top races.
7. HAPPY TRAILS
Defeated Green Moon two runs back in Weight for Age conditions and was defiant when on the pace last start. Has the versatility to go forward or back in his races so barrier 8 will not matter. Does meet one of his opponents in Green Moon better on the weights by 1.5 kg.
Why Happy Trails can't win
Has never won at the distance and is maybe better suited at 1600 metres and not the 2040 metres of the Cox Plate.
Continues to improve with every run and is one to watch. Was dragged back through the field last start and appeared to be finishing faster than any runner over the concluding stages. Needs a fast pace to feature in the finish. Is the Australian Derby winner earlier in the year and shapes up as a genuine lightly raced outside chance.
Why Ethiopia can't win :
Has yet to place in any runs this preparations and yet to prove itself in this elite company. Is more geared as a Melbourne Cup horse.
9. OCEAN PARK
Three wins from as many starts this preparation. Is a four year old Kiwi with more improvement in him and this race from the outset was the goal. Will welcome the fast run race and will be hard to hold out.
Why Ocean Park can't win
Is prone to finding troubles in his races with all 3 runs to date recorded in the stewards report.
10. MORE JOYOUS
Has been carrying the weight on her back in her past few starts with ease and is better suited at weight for age. Has an incredible 21 wins from 29 starts and is the winner of the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth earlier in the year defeating Manighar.
Why More Joyous can't win:
The barrier draw has been widely talked about in the media and will no doubt play a role in where she can settle in the race. Seemed a tired mare last time when 4th in the Toorak when carrying 60kg and has not won at the track with the two attempts to date.
11. SOUTHERN SPEED
Top rated horse who lucked out from a wide gate last time behind Green Moon in the Turnbull. Her run two starts back when fourth behind Ocean Park had most stand and notice, will be the one running home late.
Why Southern Speed can't win:
Six attempts at this distance without a win, and has never won when racing from a barrier wider than 10.
Is a three year old colt with plenty of promise. Was undefeated in 8 attempts before having his colours lowered by All To Hard, when covering additional ground. There is no denying why he is the bookies favourite and is a winner at the track.
Why Pierro can't win:
Worked extremely hard last start and might have taken the wind out of his sails. The last 3 year old to win this race was So You Think in 2009 and will need to be as good as him to take out this event.
13. ALL TO HARD
Put the writing on the wall with a win last start over promising colt Pierro. His light weight will bring him into contention as does the fact he is the half brother to Black Caviar.
Why All To Hard can't win:
Was safely held in a weight for age event two runs back when fourth to Shoot Out. Did get all the favours last run when he defeated Pierro and has yet to be tried at this distance.
The baby of the field in terms of career starts, only has the four starts to date with 3 wins. Is a Colt on the improve and will benefit for the experience in this tough field. The significant weight drop will add his chances as will it's breeding blood lines to Encosta De Lago.
Why Proisir can't win:
Is still learning and will need all his will to come over the top of more seasoned campaigners, especially having drawn gate 10. His last run over the 2000 metres was a steady 2nd when a beaten as the short priced favourite.